Brownfield Development: New York City Leaves its Industrial Past

I read this white paper from Newmark and thought "Oh, my G-d. I want to be this Peter Kozel when I grow up." Such thorough and far reaching analysis - it just blew me away. Most other reports of this nature focus on money changing hands, how much and sometimes between whom if it's a notably sized deal.

It has been a long time since I read anything so lucid about such otherwise voluminous and complex material. It was almost like reading Michael Poter . It just blew me away.

It helps that this article reiterates many things I have been thinking and that others have been saying - the conversion of a lot of office space and business districts to residential areas and...of the development of the outer boroughs as well. Some highlights:

On Manhattan, the transformation of portions of the Midtown South and Downtown submarkets into important residential locations is having a powerful impact on the social and economic fiber of the area. For example, the latest Census Bureau data for 2004 show that the number of children under five years old increased by 27% from 2000. This was the first increase in forty years. Not only are abandoned and underutilized industrial and office buildings being converted to residential and retail properties, but in a few cases a quality office building is being converted for residential use.

One one hand, this is amazing. I have been thinking about the conversion of office buildings for residential space. On the other hand, he cites the Census data saying that there has been a 27% increase in the number of children under age 5 in Manhattan. What about school aged children? I know so many people who were moved to the suburbs the minute they were ready to start schools. I can imagine the same dynamic will take place unless Manhattan public schools improve markedly - unless all of these families send their children to private schools, which will soon get overcrowded if these trends continue.

He continues:

On the other end of Manhattan, Harlem Park is under construction at 125th Street and Park Avenue. This 660,000 sf mixed use project includes 167,000 sf of Class A office space, 62,000 sf of retail space a 204 room hotel and 100 residential units.

Wow, wow, wow. I don't recall seeing anything looking like major development at 125th Street and Park Avenue. I must look more closely when I am in the area.

Moreover:

Perhaps even more interesting about the surge in development is the fact that it extends beyond Manhattan to the other boroughs of New York City. This is an especially important trend because it means that Manhattan will not be literally and figuratively an island of gleaming buildings surrounded by miles of mundane and unappealing structures.

Amen. Still, he left out The Bronx, but I read something of interest that can fill the gap here. I will add that in another post.

He goes on to mention the Long Island City, Flushing Town Center Atlantic Yards and Coney Island projects and ends with:

Redevelopment and repositioning are changing the demographic, social and economic profile of New York City. These changes should result in a City that has a broader and more stable economic foundation and future.

Amazing. Just what I was thinking. Now one just needs to get into the nuts and bolts, the dollars and cents of these development projects. Many of these projects involve major infrastructure changes, for instance the extension of the #7 subway line to 11th Avenue for the development of the West side railyards. My understanding is that this project is competing with the 2nd Avenue subway line, the creation of a Long Island Railroad stop at Grand Central Station and I believe also some other subway project in Lower Manhattan near Ground Zero. They are all competing for funds from Albany who always seems to cry poor. Then there are of course the local resistance to projects like the Atlantic Yards project with Forest City Ratner.